The risks and perils for Netanyahu of a reoccupation of the Gaza Strip

Twenty years after the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and the departure of the last settlers from this Palestinian enclave, the dream of the Israeli far right could become reality.

According to several Israeli media, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu is preparing to unveil a plan aimed at reclaiming the entire Gaza Strip.

The displayed goal is the same as the one that was set when the war was launched, about 22 months ago: to destroy Hamas and release the hostages which are still detained by the Islamist movement.

The plan to reoccupy Gaza delights the hawks of the Netanyahu government, in particular the ministers of the far right Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, of fervent supporters of colonization.

These two men are targeted by Canadian sanctions for incitement to violence against the Palestinians. The Netherlands declared them Persona Non Grata, accusing them of ethnic cleaning in the Gaza Strip.

The two ministers openly demand the voluntary departure Of more than two million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip in order to restore the Jewish colonies which had been dismantled in 2005, at the request of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

It is thanks to them if the fragile coalition of Benyamin Netanyahu is still in power today. The Prime Minister therefore has every interest in satisfying them, especially since they have often threatened to slam the door of his government if a truce agreement is concluded with Hamas.

Concerns within the army

But by trying to please some, Mr. Netanyahu is likely to put several key players on the back, starting with the army chief. According to the Israeli media, the lieutenant-general Eyal Zamir is fiercely opposed to the military reoccupation of the Gaza Strip, but undergoes considerable pressures in order to execute the orders of the political level in connection with the war.

Public television Kan reported information on Wednesday that several military officials fear for the lives of soldiers if the government decides to send more troops to Gazaoui soil. Since the start of the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, the results of the Israeli soldiers killed was nearly 900, according to official army data.

The army also spoke of the heavy psychological impact of war on its soldiers on Sunday, claiming that 37 soldiers suffering from combat trauma has killed themselves since the beginning of 2024.

General Zamir also fears for the life of hostages if the government ever decides to expand its operations on the ground. Of the 50 hostages that Hamas still has in Gaza, around twenty would still be alive.

Military officials cited by the Kan believe that these hostages may be executed by their captors if the Israeli troops are close to their place of detention. The hostages could also be inadvertently killed by soldiers who are supposed to release them.

This scenario already occurred in December 2023 when the hostages Yotam Haïm, 28, Samer al-Talalqa, 25, and Alon Lulu Shamriz, 26, were killed in a mistake by Israeli soldiers during an operation in Gaza. However, an investigation demonstrated that the three hostages had brandished a white flag and called for help in Hebrew when they were killed.

What about the Gazaouis?

And then what will happen to the Gazan population, hungry and exhausted, if the Israeli army extends its operations throughout the enclave which is already subject to an almost hermetic blockade?

Since the start of the war, Israel has controlled the vast majority of the Palestinian territory, in addition to its airspace and maritime space.

Will Palestinian civilians all be confined to an Israeli army area in the south of the Gaza Strip, as the Minister of Defense had mentioned, Israel Katz? This plan had however been denounced by several senior Israeli officials, including former Prime Minister Ehoud Olmert, who even spoke of a camp de concentration To describe the area where the two million Gazaouis would be piled up.

In addition, in the eyes of international law, any Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip is considered illegal. International law is clear in this regard. Gaza is and must remain an integral part of a future Palestinian staterecently recalled a senior official of theHimwarning against catastrophic consequences What could have an extension of Israeli military operations in Gaza.

Israeli media also evoke financial costs invaluable linked to a possible reconquest of Gaza. According to the daily Israel Hayomthe Israeli government will have to assume alone the costs of clearing the immense quantity of debris in the Palestinian territory, in addition to providing the basic needs of the Gazan population if the army ever takes control of the entire enclave.

It would therefore be the equivalent of almost $ 40 billion Canadian dollars just to ensure the clearing of the rubble, as well as for the establishment of health infrastructure and the restoration of the electric current and the water supply system in the territory.

But before all that, the army will have to dismantle all Hamas infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. An operation which, according to the army chief, risks taking several years.

Moreover, just to clear the 37 million tonnes of debris, it will be necessary to provide at least 14 years of work, according to theHim.

Meanwhile, it is radio silence in the United States, the infallible ally of Israel and the only country capable of putting pressure on Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. High US officials have even told Axios information site that President Donald Trump was not intended to oppose the Israeli plan to win back the Gaza Strip.

“Mr. Trump will let the Israelis do what they have to do,” said one of those officials.