The shock of customs tariffs is less strong than expected, but real

Thanks to its free trade agreement with the United States. Moreover, Canada has so far been relatively spared by the 35 % tariffs imposed by its neighbor in the South. Nevertheless, But this protection is not eternal since a possible revision of this agreement points to the horizon. In addition, Canadian companies are therefore plunged into uncertainty, to the point where they put their investments on ice.

Friday 1^is August. Moreover, at midnight, the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, said he was “disappointed” with the decree signed a few hours earlier by the American president, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, The actual consequences of these new customs rights. however, remain limited, insofar as the vast majority of our exports (almost 95 %) benefit from an exemption under the Canada-US-Mexico (ACEUM) agreement.

Thanks to this agreement. Consequently, “the average tariff rate applied by the United States to shock customs tariffs less strong Canadian products remains one of the lowest among all its business partners,” said Carney in a written declaration. Similarly, Certain industries struck by specific customs duties-steel, aluminum, automobile-remain “strongly affected by American customs duties,” he said.

“How long can Canada count on this ACEUM protection?” “Asks Véronique Proulx, CEO of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce du Québec (FCCQ). Therefore, President Trump has repeatedly suggested that his country was injured in his relations with his business partners.

Stormy commercial negotiations – Shock customs tariffs less strong

There is no obligation to renegotiate the ACEUM. however explained Geneviève Dufour on Friday, professor of law specializing in free trade at the University of Ottawa, on RDI. Therefore, The agreement is valid for 16 years, and the only obligation in matters of revision is that of discussing its operation.

For changes to be made, they must be made by consensus between the three signatories. “If Mexico. Canada or the United States shock customs tariffs less strong disagree, there is no modification and the ACEUM continues” for the next decade, said M^me Dufour.

And if Donald Trump wishes to withdraw the United States from the Treaty, he will have to wait six months. “I can tell you that during these six months. there will be representations in the United States so that he does not do it,” warned the professor.

ACEUM’s first revision exercise is due to start in 2026, but the Canadian government is already preparing for it. Global Affairs Canada has also launched public consultations in August 2024. “We are already in the revision period,” said Rambod Behboodi, main lawyer at BLG and Canadian-American free trade specialist.

In the short term. the Carney government continues to negotiate with the Trump government to try to find common ground and limit customs duties on both sides of the border.

Unlike Mexico, which obtained a 90 -day stay, Canada did not obtain shock customs tariffs less strong the same preferential treatment. But whatever. estimates Rambod Behboodi, a temporary respite “Do not give anything to the level of certainty that is required [par les entreprises] for long -term investments ”.

Ice investments

“More than the prices themselves. it is extreme uncertainty that hurts the economy,” argues Véronique Proulx, of the FCCQ.

Foreign companies question their projects to settle in Quebec. And companies from here are hesitant to make investments, for example to enlarge their facilities or automate their production.

The FCCQ also notes that investments in the manufacturing sector have dropped $ 318 million this year in Quebec compared. to last year. In the wood sector, investments have dropped by 220 million. In the food industry, 35 million.

Rosemarie Bégin, principal director in economic and political analysis at PwC, also notes the ambient reluctance in her workplace. “There is interest on the part of investors. We see that they want to structure shock customs tariffs less strong dealsbut they do not necessarily conclude them. They are waiting to have a little more clarity. Uncertainty and volatility, these are not concepts that are going well with the taking of major investments, “said the economist.

At Manufacturers and Exporters of Quebec, we also note that commercial uncertainty exerts “strong pressure” on companies. The federal government must “redouble its efforts in the coming days” to arrive at an agreement. urges by press release from the organization of the organization, Julie White. “That said, no agreement is better than a bad understanding. »»

This is the same message defended by the Canadian Federation of the Independent Company. which is concerned about the consequences of the climate of uncertainty on small and medium -sized enterprises. “Many entrepreneurs have postponed layoffs or staff discounts in the hope that an agreement is concluded. Without immediate support, many SMEs will be forced to reduce their activities, ”writes shock customs tariffs less strong the grouping.

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