The financial markets experienced an intense weekend, under the effect of the meeting between Trump and Putin. The situation in Ukraine will remain a key factor this week, but the attention of the markets will also turn to other important events. Investors are mainly turning to the Fed, since Jerome Powell must give a speech on Friday during the economic symposium of Jackson Hole. In addition, a series of significant macroeconomic data are expected, including preliminary PMI indices and inflation figures in the euro zone and Japan. In this context, the markets to be monitored this week are the US500l’OR and theUSDJPY.
US500
More than 90 % of S&P 500 companies have now published their quarterly results. Business profits have been upwards, even if it should be noted that expectations were relatively low. The term contracts on American indices, including the US500, reached historical levels last week. In a context of increasing geopolitical uncertainty linked to war in Ukraine, customs duties and monetary policy, investors wonder about the merits of current high valuations. Therefore, investors will be attentive to Jerome Powell’s speech during the Jackson Hole symposium next Friday. After the strong surprise of production prices inflation, it should in theory to temper the expectations of a drop in rates in September, which nevertheless seems to be acquired at 100 %, because several significant macroeconomic data, likely to modify interest rate prospects, are still expected before the September meeting.
OR
Gold has been in a consolidation phase since it reached historical heights in September, pending a catalyst to cross either key resistance around 3 440 $either the level of support to 3 300 $. The uncertainty that persists around Ukraine remains an important factor, making crucial for gold all developments related to monetary policy. From the point of view of the data, the preliminary PMI indices of August, which will be published Thursday, will be important because they could have an impact on the valuation of the dollar and, consequently, on the prices of gold.
USDJPY
Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent caused a strengthening of the Yen by suggesting that he saw an imminent increase in interest rates by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, he frequently commented on American interest rates, saying that they should be significantly lower. In the context of BOJ’s decision, inflation data published on Friday will be crucial. If inflation is higher (and it is already clearly higher than the objective), the probability of an increase in rates will increase considerably. Naturally, from the point of view of the dollar, Powell’s speech at the economic symposium of Jackson Hole will be decisive.
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