If Donald Trump maintains the customs taxes announced in April, the commercial conflict that would be engaged could cost 17 billion francs in Switzerland, nearly 2,000 francs per capita, estimates Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF economist, in an interview with Blick.
On April 2, Donald Trump announced that Swiss products would be taxed up to 31%, a much more severe rate than the 20% imposed on European Union products. Since then, the American president has changed and suspended his taxes until July 9, leaving everyone in uncertainty.
But this period of uncertainty is toxic to the economy and could cost Switzerland dearly, according to Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF economist, the Conditional Research Center for the Zurich Polytechnic.
Indeed, in his eyes, this invalidates all forecasts and discourages investments. However, he points out that Switzerland is resilient and that it knows how to adapt.
>> Read also: 31% for Switzerland, 20% for the EU: world shock after the increase in customs taxes announced by Donald Trump
Gloomy economic perspectives
More generally, Switzerland’s economic prospects are tarnished, according to the cyclical barometer that KOF published on Monday. The indicator, which relies on some 500 variables, fell 2.5 points to stand at 96.1 points, after 98.6 points revised in May. It has now been at its lowest level since the start of the year and is below economists’ forecasts.
This pessimism is reflected in most groups of indicators included in the KOF indicator. The manufacturing industry is notably subject to high pressure, while the negative perspectives are slightly attenuated by the group of indicators for foreign demand, which displays an improvement this month.
With regard to the manufacturing industry, the undanticators relating to the general situation of companies show a “particularly strong” downward trend, it is specified in a press release.
Sub-indicators relating to the production activity, the constitution of stocks of intermediate goods, order books and stocks of finished products have also fallen. The prospects for the export sub-indicators are for their part “slightly positive, but practically unchanged”.
KS/BOI WITH ATS
