The most important drone attack since the start of the war, the largest number of civilian victims identified in June … in Ukraine, records follow one another. While the United States and Europeans are growing to get a ceasefire, Vladimir Putin intensifies his offensive, and is not ready for the slightest dealership.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron faced this Thursday, July 10 in the face of the relentlessness of Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. Faced with the “coalition of voluntary countries”, gathered in videoconference, the two leaders called to increase “pressure” on Moscow to obtain a cease-fire.
“We have to redirect our efforts to preparing peace, forcing Putin to go to the negotiating table (…). This coordinated pressure will make the difference,” said Keir Starmer, while Emmanuel Macron pleaded to “intensify support” to kyiv.
“Ukraine must hold until Vladimir Putin decides to stop the massacre,” judges General Jérôme Pellistrandi, defense consultant for BFMTV.
A war more intense than ever
Russia has multiplied in recent weeks its night strikes on Ukraine, beating records in number of devices drawn, provided by a defense industry that runs at full speed. On the night of Tuesday, July 8 to Wednesday, July 9, Moscow launched its greatest drone and missile attack since the start of the invasion in February 2022. 728 drones and 13 missiles were fired according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
During the night of this Thursday, another 400 drones and 18 missiles were launched in a “massive” attack by “almost ten o’clock”, killing kyiv.
“The Ukrainians are now facing attacks by hundreds of drones every night. It is pure terrorism,” said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky calling on Thursday to invest more in defense.
The month of June has the sad record for the number of deaths and wounded civilians for three years, according to the mission of the UN of human rights surveillance in Ukraine. 232 people died and 1,343 were injured.
“By saturating the Ukrainian sky every night, Vladimir Putin aims to break the morale of population,” notes General Jérôme Pellistrandi. “He continues his high intensity offensive by targeting the entire shameless territory”.
The region of the capital kyiv, which concentrated the fighting at the very beginning of the Russian offensive before the front moved to the south-east of Ukraine, is again massively targeted.
“The attacks are more numerous and more and more deadly. The Russians want to redouble their efforts to achieve their ends,” explains Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russia and geopolitics teacher at the University of Montpellier. “Russia has always had the same objectives since 2022,” she notes. Either have Ukraine capitulate, seize the four partially occupied regions, put an end to Western aid, prevent kyiv from joining NATO …
On talks, “Moscow does not move an inch”
And it is not the recent pressure exerted by Donald Trump – after months of rapprochement and complacency on the part of Washington towards the Kremlin – which will change the situation. A week ago, the American president said he was “very unhappy” with a telephone conversation organized with Vladimir Putin.
“He wants to go to the end, just continue to kill people, it’s not good,” he said, evoking potential sanctions towards Russia.
He also announced Monday sending “more weapons” to kyiv, including anti -aircraft defense systems as Ukraine has been asking for months, arousing the anger of Moscow.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio since Malaysia said this Thursday that he had noted his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, “disappointment” and “frustration” of Donald Trump in the face of “lack of progress” to end the Russian invasion.
“But Putin doesn’t care what Trump can say,” said General Jérôme Pellistrandi. Negotiations, started by the American president since his arrival in power on January 20 have been deadlocked. No third cycle of discussions between Russians and Ukrainians has yet been announced, after two not very successful meetings in Türkiye in mid-May and then in early June. Moscow, like kyiv, camps on his positions. The two countries remain very far from an agreement, whether it is a temporary truce or a longer term regulations. The Kremlin continues to reject the idea of a ceasefire.
“Donald Trump managed to make the Russians think that it is important to negotiate but he has not obtained anything in concrete. The war has even redoubled intensity since the start of American mediation attempts,” says Carole Grimaud, also a researcher in information sciences linked to Russia at the University of Aix-Marseille. “Moscow does not move an inch, they want their vision of peace”. Except that the conditions of the Kremlin are unacceptable for kyiv.
“On the ground, every day looks alike”
Faced with this diplomatic status quo, Ukrainian leaders accuse Russia of seeking to “save time”, strong of its superiority in terms of staff and armaments.
Russia, which already occupies 20% of the Ukrainian territory, is progressing slowly on the ground. She nibbles land in the east. She claimed on Monday taking a village in the Dnipropetrovsk region, 70km from the city of Donetsk under Russian control, a first since the start of the invasion.
General Jérôme Pellistrandi, however, nuances this news. “It is a little progression that is not significant. When Russia takes a village, it takes a bunch of ruins,” he said.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced “in the north of the Soumy Oblast”, in northeast Ukraine near the Russian border, “in the middle of a series of counter-attacks in progress,” noted the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Wednesday.
In retaliation for the Russian invasion, kyiv is carrying out air attacks in Russia almost every day. Russian authorities announced this Friday, July 11, having shot down 155 Ukrainian drones overnight, and that a drone attack died in the Russian region of Lipetsk. The day before, according to local authorities, two civilians were killed, on the border with Ukraine, in the Belgorod region, and another in the Koursk region, targets in August 2024 of an offensive of the Ukrainian forces hunted last April after months of fighting.
“For Ukraine, priority is for defense. It is not a question for them to try a large offensive to recover ground,” notes our defense consultant.
The 1,000 km2 front line is changing little. The fighting, which have already made tens of thousands of deaths, civilians and soldiers combined on both sides, are concentrated on the side of the Soumy Oblast in the Northeast, in Donbass in the Southeast and Kherson’s side in the South.
“On the ground, every day looks alike,” says General Jérôme Pellistrandi. “Vladimir Putin thinks that the balance of power is favorable to him but he fails to unravel the Ukrainian lines of defense”.
