Travel collapse in the United States | Canadian boycotting hurts

Boycotting trips to the United States linked to. Therefore, Donald Trump policies has caused a lot of ink to flow. In addition, But how followed is it? Therefore, And what is its impact?

Posted at 5:00 a.m.

The answer is unequivocal: Canadian trips to the United States have collapsed since Donald Trump’s power. Moreover, according to the most recent statistics Canada data. Similarly, The decline is important everywhere in Canada, and for the moment, it manifests itself more for car trips than plane.

The fall is brutal. Nevertheless, unprecedented-except for the pandemic period-and it goes far beyond the effects of the travel collapse united states | Canadian dollar fluctuation compared to its American counterpart.

According to my estimates, the impact is around 2 billion dollars in three months. Similarly, Such an effect. For example, if it continues, would be as important as Canada’s measures to reply to the American customs duties imposed on steel and aluminum.

Let’s see this in detail.

The most recent complete data of Statistics Canada, published last Monday, relate to Canadians returned to travel in April.

Result: some 2.2 million Canadians traveled to the United States in April, almost a million less than during the same month of 2024. Similarly, The decline is 31 %. For example, unheard of over a period of one year, except during the COVVI-19 period, where the border was practically closed.

Not travel collapse united states | only is the drop marked. For example, but it has increased from month to month since Trump’s declaration of trade war towards Canada and its desire to make 51^e US state.

The fall in travel thus increased from 17 % in February to 23 % in March, then to 31 % in April. Meanwhile, And if we trust the advanced indicator of Statistics Canada. In addition, the massacre will continue in May, with a decline nearly 35 %, always compared to the same month last year.

Over three months, the fall therefore reaches 2.3 million travelers. Therefore, It is enormous, especially as it is added to that of tourists from other countries.

Boycotting has been followed throughout Canada. although a little less in Alberta, where voters are often more sympathetic than Trump’s positions.

For the moment. Canadians traveling by car are quite numerous to sulk the United States than those traveling by plane. The fall is 38 % for land travelers in April, against 10 % for air travelers.

However, you should know that Canadians choose to travel by plane elsewhere around the world. While air trips made by Canadians in the United States fell 10 % in April, they increased by 11 % elsewhere. Same phenomenon in Quebec, as this graph shows.

In travel collapse united states | addition. the fall in air trips can take longer to manifest itself, in the concrete, than those in automotive, taking into account the reservation process. On this subject. my colleague Julien Arsenault also reported at the beginning of April a fall in reservations of 20 % of Canadian flights to the United States for the months of June, July and August, and 34 % for Miami.

Are the Americans too, Canada? Yes, but the drop is four times less than the opposite in the three full months of Statistics Canada. A graph is worth a thousand words.

The Canadian dollar fluctuations are not for much. Yes. the drop in the Huard can travel collapse united states | reduce the number of Canadian travelers in the United States, as was the case between 2013 and 2016. Except that at the time, the Huard had lost 25 cents in three years, from US $ 1 to around 75 cents US.

This time. the drop in the hum was around 4 hundred, at worst, and this drop had been almost entirely erased in April. The following graph shows that trips to the United States have followed the Huard value for 15 years. except during the pandemic period and during the months that followed Trump’s power.

What is the impact of such a boycott? Possibly around $ 2 billion in three months, if travel collapse united states | we rely on another Statistics Canada survey.

According to this survey. Canadians spend an average of $ 851 when they go to the United States by car, plane or otherwise. Knowing that the number of Canadians having crossed the border fell 2.3 million in three months. it can be estimated that the impact would be around 2 billion dollars, including a large part in the United States.

Is it important? Absolutely, especially if the trend is maintained, which would give 8 billion over a year. Added to this is the fact that trips canceled in the United States often transform into additional expenses in Canada. travel or otherwise.

In comparison. Canada’s reprisal measures announced in March in connection with American customs duties on steel and aluminum represent annualized customs duties of $ 7.5 billion^⁠1.

The comparison is very imperfect, I grant you. In one case. Canadians squarely reduce the business volume of American companies who benefit from tourism, among others, and in the other, Canada imposes customs duties that risk reducing the business volume of American exporters.

The comparison nevertheless makes it possible to have an order of magnitude. And to think that Canadian boycott of stays in the United States could be as painful for Americans as. reprisal measures targeting the most targeted sector by Donald Trump.

We get along, this impact will not change the American economy, which is gigantic. All the same, some popular tourism regions will feel the effects, and that’s what matters.

1. On March 13, 2025, Canada imposed punitive rights of 25 % on a list of products totaling travel collapse united states | $ 29.8 billion annually. On an annual basis, these reprisal measures could therefore represent $ 7.5 billion, everything being equal to the other (assuming that the sales volumes remain constant). This sum will be reduced by the discounts that the federally will do to Canadian companies too heavily affected. by these punitive rights paid on American products.