As the fateful date of August 1 approaches, Brussels negotiates feverishly with Washington to avoid customs duties at 30 %, while acting in parallel to seal trade agreements with new allies. “Europe continues the diversification of its commercial partnerships”declared the president of the commission on April 10, by calling to unite those who continue to believe in the virtues of “Freedom and market opening”.
For a long time army on cooperation and multilateralism, the EU is now violently struck by the return in force of Trumpian protectionism. While yesterday the United States praised the benefits of free trade, Donald Trump establishes today a commercial order dominated by the balance of power and uninhibited protectionism. Since April 2, 2025, Washington has launched a real commercial offensive, threatening to impose customs duties on all of its economic partners, including its historic ally, the European Union.
Faced with this brutal turnaround, Europe strives to keep in love. No question, officially, to break with its main economic partner, with which it exchanges each year almost 1,700 billion euros in goods and services. But confronted with an American ally that has become unpredictable, the EU now has little choice but to conclude trade agreements with other powers – India, Latin America, and even China -, in the hope of securing new outlets for its exporting sectors.
India, “a strategic priority”
While the United Kingdom is one step ahead with the signing, Thursday, July 24, of a historic agreement of 7 billion euros, the EU knows that a rapprochement with India is now strategic. In February, the Commission immediately declared that it considered relations with India as a “Strategic priority”.
The negotiations of a free trade agreement between Brussels and New Delhi, frozen between 2013 and 2021, had been relaunched in 2022, but it was truly from spring 2025 that negotiations officially resumed. The EU and India seek to tighten their cooperation in terms of security and defense, while assessing the advantages of economic rapprochement, especially in supply chains and foreign direct investments.
The objective displayed by Brussels is to finalize an agreement by the end of 2026, for an entry into force during 2027. This agreement, if signed, would constitute one of the largest agreements ever concluded by the EU, with a partner representing almost 10 % of world GDP and a population of 1.4 billion inhabitants.
Chinese temptation
The EU has also received from tense hands, especially those of the main rival of the Americans, China. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, said Thursday, July 24, during her meeting with the president of the European Commission in Beijing that “The more serious and complex the international situation, the more China and the EU must intensify communication, strengthen mutual trust and deepen cooperation”.
At this summit, slight progress in China-EU relations was made with the implementation of a mechanism aimed at facilitating European companies to Chinese rare land, these strategic ores almost entirely controlled by China.
But Europe fears that China, excluded from the American market, is trying to pour its low -cost products on European soil. Brussels shows caution and waits to see if Beijing can really become a reliable partner, in particular by relaunching its domestic consumption, key to reducing its dependence on exports. “Chinese leadership has expressed its desire to support consumption more, but we expect progress on this subject”said the president of the European Commission on Thursday.
Mercosur: the EU plays the watch to finally conclude the agreement
The EU relies on Trump’s customs offensive to push the Member States to ratify the agreement with Mercosur, a file that Brussels hopes to complete by the end of the year. Signed on December 6, 2024, after twenty-five years of negotiations, this agreement aims to facilitate exchanges with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, lowering the price and regulatory barriers, but it is still pending.
To enter into force, he must obtain the approval of the European Parliament as well as that of at least 15 of the 27 Member States, representing at least 65 % of the population – a passage far from being assured. France, in particular, vigorously rejects the treaty, fearing for its bovine sector and the survival of its small farms, faced with competition from South American giant farms. Germany, of which agriculture is based on large farms, supports the agreement. Berlin wants to solidify its economic ties with the Mercosur countries, especially with Brazil, where more than 1,800 German companies, especially in chemistry (Bayer, Basf) and the automobile, are established.
The European Commission, which ensures dialogue with European Member States, hopes that the increased pressure of trade tensions with the United States will finally move the lines of recalcitrants.
