Trump-Zelensky, épisode 2 | Zonebourse

But we start with a summer summary. If you come back from vacation and need a lapidary financial summary, here it is: the economic world has not exploded with American customs from customs. The semi-annual results of companies have been surprisingly good, even if the new approach to the United States complicates the task of managers. The general feeling is that the Fed will reduce its rates in September. There is even debate on a simple or a double drop in rate, with high pressure from the Trump administration to happen. The asset classes that have progressed the most this year are gold, bitcoin and actions. The mostly zero-acting donkey cap returns to raw materials, with a special mention for oil (-12%). Another significant and rare variation, the 13% drop in the USD against the EUR, while the ECB that lowers its rates and the Fed that keeps them. We talk about it a little later.

But first, let’s complete with the performance of actions in 2025:

• MSCI World (23 developed markets): +12.6% from 1^is January and 5^e consecutive months of earnings in August (for the moment),

• MSCI emerging markets: +18.3% and 8^e consecutive months of earnings in August (for the moment),

• S&P 500 : +9,7%,

• Stoxx Europe 600 : +9,1%.

• ETF S&P 500 marketed in Europe: -2.7% (because of the exchange effect, a slightly painful bite to remind you that, no, the exchange risk we don’t care).

Everything is fine, because none of the disasters announced has occurred for the moment. Bank of America summed up the situation in a slightly more professional way than me by explaining that the party is in full swing at the idea that the Fed will end up joining the global rate of rate drops in 2025. The markets surf on this, because they are convinced that the central bank will not let the job deteriorate, but also for a more alarming reason: it is necessary to make the debt at 5 years old at 3.1% Plus, to consider stabilizing the $ 1200 billion (!) Of current annual interests. US 5 years is 3.843% currently, so some rate drops would be welcome. The Trump administration needs a boom, even a bubble, to push the debt wall. Hence a persistent disenchantment for Treasuries long -term, and an intact appetite for dear but promising assets (actions, credit, gold, crypto, emerging, etc.). The flagship argument, the one behind it all for American finance? Protect yourself against inflation and a creeping devaluation of the dollar.

So much for the rapid assessment of summer financial events. To this must be added the geopolitical variable, embodied by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Friday, Donald Trump welcomed Vladimir Putin in Alaska to discuss the situation in Ukraine. The fantasy of a ceasefire imposed by Trump has evaporated. The White House had also worked, upstream, to lower expectations around this summit. Trump, he rather gave the impression of ratifying the Russian position: stopping the fighting possible if kyiv gives up the territories claimed by Moscow. A feeling reinforced by the absence of new sanctions against Russia. The American president will now receive at Washington Volodymyr Zelensky at 7:15 p.m. Paris hour, then European leaders at 9:00 p.m. Their goal is to negotiate a peace plan that is not too favorable to Moscow. Donald Trump, he repeated that Ukraine can neither recover Crimea nor enter NATO, while insisting that Zelensky can end the war “almost immediately” if he wishes. Understand here by accepting the annexation of the territories claimed by Russia. I remind you that the last physical meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House in February was particularly stormy, even if the two men met again twice in Europe since.

The other info not to be missed to start the week well:

• Oil prices continued their decline after the Trump – Poutine meeting, perceived as favorable to Russian exports. Authorized environments believe that there has also been a question of the exploitation of arctic roads and resources, which the two countries have been coveting for a long time.

• On the Macro Hebdo agenda: the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be available on Tuesday. Wednesday, investors will read the PMI activity indicators of the main economies. Friday at 4:00 p.m. Paris time, Jerome Powell will give a speech from the Jackson Hole symposium.

• On the agenda of companies: focus on the quarterly of the great American distributors, notably The Home Depot (Tuesday) and Walmart (Thursday). BHP Group, Alcon, Geberit and Xiaomi will bring a little diversity.

The week starts up on all over Asia-Pacific, except in South Korea where Kospi loses more than 1% after Donald Trump’s statements on an imminent overcrowding of flea imports in the United States. Conversely, Japan wins 0.85%, Hong Kong 0.60% and India more than 1% (after favorable tax announcements of the government). Australia limits its gains to 0.1%. Taiwan, which should also fear American threats to semiconductors, still increased by 0.5%. European advanced indicators are, still, bullish.

The economic highlights of the day

US retail sales and the University of Michigan confidence index will make the news in the afternoon. The whole agenda here.

The quotes are those of the day around 7:00, the links allow you to have real time:

The main changes in recommendations

• Argan: Barclays remains to be overlooked with a reduced price target from 91 to 80 EUR.
• AUTOSTORE HOLDINGS: Morgan Stanley goes from under-ponder to market weighting with a price of courses noted from 5 to 8 Nok.
• Boozt: Seb Bank goes to keep buying with an 85 SEK raised course target at 100 SEK.
• Clariant: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the price target from 10 to 9.50 CHF.
• CTP: KEMPEN maintains its purchase recommendation and notes the price of courses from EUR 19 to EUR 21.
• Equinor: Sparebank 1 Markets passes to buy in neutral with a reduced course target from 305 Nok to 270 Nok.
• Galderma Group: Bank vontobel remains to be preserved with a price of courses noted from 105 to 120 CHF.
• Hugo Boss: Citi remains in neutral with a reduced course target from 42 to 40 EUR.
• Höegh Autoliners: Arctic Securities goes to buy with a price of courses noted from 95 NOK to 101.80 Nok.
• BMI: JP Morgan remains to overlap with a reduced price target from 162 to 138 EUR.
• Klépierre: Kempen maintains his neutral recommendation and raises the price of courses from 30.50 to 34 EUR.
• Pandora: Deutsche Bank remains to be purchased with a reduced course target from 1325 to 1150 DKK.
• SGS: Goldman Sachs maintains its sales recommendation with a price of courses noted from 80 to 81 CHF.
• Société Générale: CITI maintains its purchase recommendation and notes the target of courses from 60 to 67 EUR.
• Swissquote: Research Partners remains to be preserved with a price of courses noted from 430 to 490 CHF.
• Tecan Group: Bank vontobel remains to be preserved with a reduced course target from 195 to 185 CHF.
• Tokmanni Group: DNB Carnegie goes to sell with a price of courses raised from EUR 8.20 to EUR 8.70. Seb Bank goes to keep buying with a price of courses noted from 10.40 EUR to EUR 12.
• Tulikivi Corporation: Inderes goes to sell to lighten with a price target of 0.42 EUR.
• Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Kempen maintains its purchase recommendation and raises the price of courses from EUR 90 to 100 EUR.
• Veolia Environnement: DBS Bank maintains its purchase recommendation and raises the price of courses from 36.36 to 37.30 EUR.
• Wendel: Autoomous Research starts neutral follow -up by targeting EUR 93.70.

In France.

Important ads (and less important … I specify that the information is given hot before opening and does not prejudge the color of the actions during the session)

• The Valneva vaccine against chikungunya authorized in Canada for 12 years and over.
• The main publications of the day : Auplata… the rest here.

In the vast world

Important ads (and less important)

D’Europe

• Standard chartered actions under pressure after a American parliamentarian requested the opening of an investigation for the umpteenth time.

• The Novo Nordisk Wegovy obtains an accelerated authorization from the FDA for the treatment of Mash liver disease.

• Renk Group CEO Alexander Sagel said that the company could transfer its production of weapons from Germany to the United States within ten months, following the suspension of German arms exports to Israel.

• Tag Immobilien will acquire a rental real estate portfolio in Poland for 2.4 billion Zlotys (around 563 MEUR).
• Youngtimers Clôte L’Acquisition the Richmond Funds Management Management.
• U-Blox accepts an advent buyout offer at 135 CHF per share, or 1.05 MDCHF.
• The main publications of the day : Hiag Immobilien, Nyxoah …

North America

• Pfizer’s efforts in the treatment of sickle cell anemia.
• Tesla would grant discounts up to British rental companies up to 40% to sell its vehicles, according to Times.

• The Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar made his debut at Wall Street.

• The main publications of the day : Palo Alto Networks, Fabrinet …

Of Asia and elsewhere

• Petrobras plans to invest in Raizen to return to the ethanol market, reports O Globo.
• JD.com buys the Hong Kong food distributor Kai Bo Food Supermarket.
• JSW Steel and Posco plan to set up a steelworks in India.
• The main publications of the day : Westpac…

The rest of the global publication agenda here.

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