(Washington) Inflation shuddled in the United States in July without however reaching the boiling stage, according to a index published on Tuesday which the American executive is satisfied, “happy” to deny predictions according to “catastrophists” on the repercussions of his customs duties.
Last month, the consumer price index (ICC) progressed at the same rate as in June (+2.7 % over one year), contained by the drop in the cost of oil (-9.5 % over one year).
Excluding volatile energy and feeding prices, the index, on the other hand, marks a clear acceleration at +3.1 % over a year.
The publication is highly commonly sensitive.
President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise to give purchasing power to the Americans.
But the majority of economists expect to see inflation accelerate as the taxes on the imports he introduced since his return to power come into force. Especially from the moment when companies have exhausted the stocks made up in an emergency.
“Customs duties have so far had a limited impact on inflation. But since the customs rates announced are increasing one day, below the next day and even higher the following day, we cannot yet assess their final impact on prices, “said Bill Adams, economist of the Texan Bank Comerica.
Some goods are increasing because of customs duties, but that does not yet significantly affect consumers, helped in this by inexpensive fuel.
Heather Long, economist for the Navy Federal Credit Union bank
For her, “it is only a matter of time before other goods add to”.
The analyst is quite different at the White House.
“Customs duties have not caused any inflation or other problem to our country,” said Donald Trump on his social social platform.
“I am happy to see that inflation continues to keep well,” said CNBC television channel Stephen Miran to the CNBC television channel that the American president recently proposed for a governor of the Central Bank of the United States (Fed).
“There is always no evidence of inflation induced by customs duties. Many people expected, predicted the worst […] Catastrophism simply did not happen, “he added.
New threats to the Fed
Donald Trump once again called the Fed Jerome Powell president to lower “now” interest rates.
And threatened to authorize a “major legal action” against him, based on the invoice for renovation work at the institution’s headquarters in Washington, which he deems far too high.
The American president is not mystery of his wish to accelerate the departure of Jerome Powell, in an irremovable theory or almost.
To dismiss it, he should prove the existence of serious faults or embezzlement from the very weighted central banker of 72 years, whose mandate ended in May 2026.
Mr. Powell represents one voice among the Committee setting the interest rates of the Federal Reserve (FOMC).
Two governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, plead for a drop in rate in September, in order to support the labor market.
The president of the Fed of Kansas City, Jeff Schmid, member of the FOMC this year, is on another line. He estimates Tuesday in a speech that “inflation remains too high” and that “maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy remains appropriate for the moment”.
These divisions take place when the official data based on central bankers and investors are struck by suspicion.
Donald Trump dismissed 1is August the economist who supervised the Employment Statistics Office (BLS) after the publication of a report showing that the labor market has clearly deteriorated in the spring.
According to him, the data was necessarily distorted against him.
BLS is also the source of the CPI inflation index.
Donald Trump has appointed Monday at the head of the EJ Antoni statistics service, an economist of a very conservative reflection center who undoubtedly supports presidential policy.
