Since the beginning of the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in Gaza, these insurgents close to Iran have targeted more than a hundred cargo cargoos off Yemen, saying in solidarity with the Palestinians with the Palestinians.
In May, the Houthis had warned that they would continue to attack Israeli ships or linked to Israel, despite a truce with Washington having ended weeks of bombing in Yemen.
Their leader, Abdel Malek al-Houthi, said Thursday that the new attacks, carried out between Sunday and Tuesday, were only a “confirmation” of the movement’s decision to attack the ships linked to Israel “as long as the assault and the seat of Gaza continue”.
But the resumption of these attacks is carrying several messages in the current context, analysts believe.
Why now?
The Houthis say they want to maintain pressure on Israel, when indirect negotiations are underway between Israel and Hamas.
“Negotiate your head high, we are with you […] Until the headquarters are lifted and the assault ceases, ”launched their political leader, Mahdi Al-Mashat on Monday to the Palestinians.
This escalation also takes place two weeks after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, to which the United States joined.
The Houthis, which are part of the “axis of resistance” against Israel piloted by Tehran, did not intervene in this conflict.
But the recent attacks are “a reminder on the part of the revolutionary guards (Iran’s ideological army, editor’s note), via their most important ally, that what was not done (during the war with Israel), can, in the event of rehearsal, be activated, in Bab Al-Mandeb, Ormuz and Suez”, three vital navigation paths for world trade, says Maged Al-Madhajii, President of the Sanaa Strategic Studies Center.
What are the Houthis trying to prove?
The latest attacks were particularly violent, carried out using several boats with rockets as well as naval drones and missiles, according to maritime security agencies. Videos published by the Houthis showed their naval forces exploding and sinking ships.
With the weakening of other Tehran allies in its “resistance axis”-Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza-the Houthis want to show their “regional and international force” underlines Farea al-Muslimi, researcher of the Chatham House group.
While the missiles regularly pulled by the group on Israel have a limited impact, the disturbance of traffic in the Red Sea, where 12 % of world trade transit, is “a very effective way to have the West bleed,” he adds.
The Houthis also seek to show that they were not affected by American bombing, to which a truce ended in May.
These bombings have hardly affected some of their military capacities, but “they still have a large stock and quickly rebuilt their communication network,” said Farea al-Muslimi.
According to Noam Raydan, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the Houthis also benefited from the clear decline in the international military presence in the area.
“They now seem to have more margin to undermine freedom of navigation,” she says.
What consequences?
The Houthi attacks have already forced many shipowners to avoid the Red Sea, taking a longer and more expensive path.
According to Noam Raydan, the transit by the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait fell by more than 50 % compared to 2023.
“After the recent attacks, merchant ships belonging to companies, other boats of which are stopover in Israeli ports will have to either reconsider their route, or consider soliciting a military escort”, in particular to the European aspid mission deployed in the area.
But this one “has only very few naval units in the region,” warns the researcher.
By threatening freedom of navigation, the Houthis are however exposed to the risk of resumption of American bombing, but also to new attacks on the part of Israel.
The Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the Houthis “threat to international peace, security and the international economy” on Thursday.
“Not facing them will only worse the problem,” he said.
