The day of the Assumption accumulates several factors allowing him to be, over the past twenty years, the one who has recorded the least death in France.
On August 15 has a curious record: over the past twenty years, it has recorded the least death. On average, 1410 people die that day every year in France, 12% less than the number of daily deaths. Constance which is explained by several factors.
First, we die less during the summer months. Between 2004 and 2023, 1450 people died on average every day in August, against 1600 over the entire period, 9 % less. For the elderly, the cold of winter and the circulating viruses are even more formidable than the hot weather in June, July and August. “People 90 years of age or over experience under-mortality in June, July and August (-14 %) and excess mortality in January (+21 %) and February (+18 %)”Indicates INSEE in a study published in October 2024. Only the record heat wave of 2003 had reversed the trend: that year, August had been the deadliest, with an exceptional excess mortality of +31%. Since 2004, people aged 90 or over have experienced, on the contrary, sub -mortality between -10 % and -21 % in August.
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The trend is however different for the youngest, with whom deaths are more numerous in summer: up to 17 years, there is excess mortality in July (+11%). The 18-29 year olds, on the other hand, die more in June (+3 %), July (+7 %) and August (+6 %). “Young people die more frequently on the way or in a public place: 12 % of deaths of 1-17 year olds, 27 % of 18-29 year olds, against 1 % of the deaths of the entire population. However, deaths in these places occur more often in summer ”explains the National Institute of Statistics.
Protected holidays
In addition to being located in the heart of summer, August 15, a second advantage: that of being a holiday. However, on the occasion of each of these eleven days that France has, deaths are less frequent. “The deaths of August 15 are 2 % lower than those which took place on average in the previous and following previous days”explains INSEE. The same phenomenon comes on Christmas day, even if the number of deaths is 10 % more than the average number per day due to the winter season. Deaths at the hospital decrease even more during these holidays (-5%), which is explained by a slowdown in surgical interventions-which cause risks, even if they are very low-these days.
Conversely, the day that records the most dead on average comes in one of the cold three months of the year: January 3. From 2004 to 2023, it had an average number of deaths from 1900, compared to 1600 over the entire period, or +19 %. “The desire to spend these festivals with relatives, as well as that of reaching a new year could delay the occurrence of the death of people at the end of their lives and partly explain this peak”analyzes INSEE, which also evokes the resumption of surgical interventions after the holidays.
On August 15, falling this year in the middle of a heat wave, could this Friday challenge statistics? Nothing is less certain. If 70 departments are classified as orange heat wave, no department is classified as “red” by Météo France and the weather channel* this Friday. The national thermal indicator, which combines the minimum and maximum temperatures noted throughout the territory, is also slightly below 2003 (28.6 ° C against 29.5 ° C). August 15 could therefore keep his crown for a long time, unlike Easter Monday and May 8, that Prime Minister François Bayrou wishes to be worked again.
*The weather channel belongs to the Figaro group
