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Over the past three years, the European Union has affirmed its support for Ukraine in its fight against the large -scale invasion of Russia. This resulted in financial assistance, weapons and ammunition, energy security, roaming services, a free trade agreement and a temporary protection for refugees.
The next seventy budget of the European Union provides for a separate and tailor -made fund worth 100 billion euros to help the country’s long -term reconstruction.
However, this uninterrupted support could flex. For the first time, the European Commission criticized, in very clear terms, a new Ukrainian law.
This law, adopted by Parliament at a speed that seemed to take Brussels out of the way, aims to place two corruption organizations – the Ukrainian National Bureau to fight corruption (NABU) and the prosecutor’s office specializing in the fight against corruption (SAPO) – under the direct control of the Attorney General, appointed by political power.
The Attorney General will now be authorized to select the affairs treated by the Nabu and SAPO and to reassign them to other state entities, which, according to criticism, risks giving the executive the power to influence and possibly derail very publicized investigations. The Attorney General will also be able to give written instructions to the agencies.
The fact that the voting in Parliament took place one day after the security services have searched the NABU offices on the basis of Russian spy allegations Increased indignation.
Marta Kos, the European Commissioner responsible for enlargement, whose mission is to assess the progress made by the candidate countries, was the first to express her disapproval.
“I am seriously concerned about today’s vote. The dismantling of essential guarantees protecting the independence of the Nabu is a serious step back”she said on social media.
A few hours later, in the middle of increasing tumult caused by demonstrators Throughout Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky promulgated the bill.
“The infrastructure to combat corruption will only work without the influence of Russia – it must be rid of it. And there should be more justice”said the leader in his evening speech, referring to the recent searches in the Nabu offices. “It is important that the Attorney General is determined to ensure that in Ukraine, the inevitability of the sanction for those who go against the law is effectively guaranteed. This is what Ukraine really needs.”
The next day, the confrontation between Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Zelensky intensified. During a phone call, The president of the European Commission required explanations to the president.
“President Von der Leyen expressed her lively concerns about the consequences of the amendments, said a spokesperson.” Respect for the rule of law and the fight against corruption are fundamental elements of the European Union. As a candidate country, Ukraine must fully respect these standards. There can be no compromise. “
A few hours after the phone call, Volodymyr Zelensky promised to present a new bill aimed at “Guarantee the solidity of the law of the rule of law”without giving more details.
Separation of powers
The fight against corruption is at the heart of Ukraine’s ambition to join the European Union. It was one of the first questions raised by journalists and analysts when Zelensky, in the first days of the war against Russia, presented the request for membership and remained an important subject as the debate between capitals was gaining momentum.
Corruption is a notoriously persistent problem in Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the oligarchs and organized crime hastened to exploit chaos of the political transition and have looted the economy sectors in the process of being seized. Corruption has been detected in the elections, the judicial system, the public administration, the education system and the business sector, which gives the impression of a widespread penetration.
Transparency International has always classified Ukraine among the worst students in Europe in corruption. Although the country’s score has moderately increased in the last decade, it remains outside the Top 100.
Aware of the scale of the challenge, the Commission has strengthened the fight against corruption one of the seven prerequisites that Ukraine had to fulfill before officially starting the membership negotiations.
Managers agreed to launch the talks In December 2023, although Kyiv only made partial progress in the fight against corruption, “Déoligarchization” and minority rights.
Since then, Brussels has encouraged Ukraine to continue its efforts, which are essential to convince donors and international investors to bring capital to the country.
The latest edition of the report on enlargement, published in October 2024, noted that Ukraine had “Still improved” the credibility of its framework for the fight against corruption and had “Reinforced independence and institutional capacity” Nabu and SAPO, which were created in response to the 2014 Revolution.
The Nabu is investigating high -level corruption and its business is supervised and continued by SAPO. Business is then tried by the high anti -corruption court.
“NABU and SAPO have maintained their operational efficiency and remain important institutional pillars in the infrastructure to combat corruption”said the Commission.
The report underlined the fact that the SAPO had become a “Distinct legal entity” of the Office of the Attorney General and recommended that the head of the SAPO be authorized to open investigations into the members of the Parliament “Regardless” of the prosecutor.
These elements are made deciduous by the new law, which places the attorney general at the head of the two agencies as an ultimate arbitrator.
A conscious decoupling?
This apparent decline threatens to worsen the already precarious state in Ukraine’s European integration.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has imposed a veto that prevents the country from opening the first group of membership negotiations, known as the name of “Fundamental principles”. This group also covers the fight against corruption.
The Hungarian leader concentrated his opposition to the fact that Ukraine is a country at war which, according to him, does not respect the rights of his Hungarian minority. The Prime Minister described the results of a national consultation of “Strong mandate” To freeze the candidacy.
In response to the actions of Viktor Orbán, the Commission was resolutely brought to the defense of Kyivsaying that there was “No objective reason” to block the first group of candidates.
“Things are very clear: at a time when we speak, Ukraine is implementing reforms in the most difficult circumstances that we can imagine”said a spokesperson at the beginning of the month.
The quarrel around the anti-corruption reform provides Viktor Orbán and other skeptics a new argument to derail the adhesion process and, perhaps inevitably, feeds speculations on a potential decoupling of candidates from Ukraine and Moldova.
The two eastern countries have applied for EU membership shortly after the massive invasion of Russia and were declared candidates on the same day in June 2022. Since then, they have evolved together as a “couple”.
The Commission believes that the two countries are also ready to open the first group of countries and awaits the unanimous green light from the Member States.
Viktor Orbán has made no reservation about Moldova’s ambitions, which means that Chișinău could unlock the next stage of negotiations while Kyiv is waiting for the veto to be lifted.
So far, Member States have been reluctant to decouple the offersfearing that it will be a great victory for the Hungarian president and a stinging defeat for Ukraine. The dispute over anti-corruption legislation could now lead to a change in mentality.
“Events in Ukraine are extremely disturbing and may undermine Ukraine’s membership process to the EU, which is already blocked due to the veto of Hungary on the opening of the basic group”observes Amanda Paula, senior political analyst at the European Policy Center (EPC).
“I think that will give momentum to discussions on the decoupling of Moldova and Ukraine. It would be unfair to retain Moldova because of the evolution of the situation in Ukraine. ‘ she continues.
The fight against corruption is essential not only for the membership of Ukraine, but also for the commitments that the country has made towards the European Commission as a condition for receiving progressive payments within the framework of a special fund of 50 billion euros.
These payments, essential to the maintenance of public services and the payment of wages, represent a powerful lever if Brussels decides to intensify the test of strength until Kyiv returns to legal changes and restore the independence of Nabu and SAPO.
A spokesperson for the Commission said it was premature to speculate on a possible freezing of funds at this stage.
