“Be careful, don’t make me count up to 50, Vladimir!” Otherwise, there will be consequences! 1… 2… 2 and a half… 2 three quarters… ”The countdown of the President of the United States was launched this Monday. Donald Trump announced indeed give Russia 50 days to end the war in Ukraine, otherwise 100 % of surcharge would be applied to the economic partners of Russia. The Republican is a regular of this type of threat. From hostages from Hamas to Gaza to his crusade on customs duties, Donald Trump has launched a Kyrielle from Ultimatums since he entered politics, and particularly his return to the White House.
“Ultimatums are part of the Bouquet of tools that Donald Trump uses to establish a balance of power with his interlocutors,” analyzes Lauric Henneton, lecturer at Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines University and author of American dream to the test of Donald Trump (Ed. Vendémiaire, 2020).
Le dirigeant américain n’est d’ailleurs pas le seul à utiliser cette technique dans le cadre des relations internationales. Before Iraq’s invasion in 2003, British Prime Minister Tony Blair had given Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave the country. C’est toutefois « le seul dirigeant à utiliser cette méthode aussi publiquement et aussi fréquemment », assure Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy. Le docteur en civilisation américaine et auteur des Trump Words In particular, quotes his letter sent to Japan, mocked by many Internet users for its aggressive use of capital letters and its faults of agreement.
The summation is therefore part of the range of negotiation techniques of the American president. “We must not forget that he comes from the world of real estate,” says Lauric Henneton. He always establishes a balance of power and plays with the deadline to put the other part under pressure. But markets, peoples and leaders have accommodated these emphasis effects … in reality rarely followed by effect. On customs duties, Donald Trump has postponed his surcharge threats six times – first twice in a row on Canada and Mexico, then on Korean products, then on all 75 countries targeted, again for Canada and Mexico, and finally again for many countries concerned with a new deadline set for August 1.
Free, The deputy editor -in -chief François Mathieu asserts: “By dint of changing the rules along the way, repelling deadlines, to twist the facts, he emptied his word of any value. » Une analyse partagée par Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, pour qui le président américain « perd progressivement en crédibilité ». « Donald Trump est d’ailleurs surnommé “Taco” pour “Trump always chickens out”, soit “Trump se dégonfle toujours” », illustre-t-il. « Il tape dans tous les sens puis rétropédale. And those who face him, whether Vladimir Putin, NATO or EU, end up assuming that he will automatically retropedalize, ”abounds Lauric Henneton.
With Russia, Donald Trump’s positioning is generally more measured. But after more than six months at the White House, the Republican, who had promised to resolve the war in Ukraine in “24 hours”, begins to get impatient. Despite his desire to put an end to the conflict, Donald Trump failed to bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table. And his myriad of concessions made to the detriment of Ukraine did not lead to the slightest gesture of its Russian counterpart.
“More than the ultimatum, what surprises here is that it is so far away. Why wait 50 days – almost two months – rather than two weeks?, Wonders Lauric Henneton. There may be a lot of things militarily in fifty days, if they are not pushed back to eternal life. Another strangeness: while a republican bill invited to impose customs duties up to 500 % on countries buying oil, gas or uranium in Russia, Donald Trump was content to mention “100 %” of surcharge.
“Donald Trump is someone generally strong with the weak but weak with the forts,” analyzes Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, for whom this umpteenth Ultimatum will not bend Russia. « Soit Vladimir Poutine lui donnera un os à ronger et Donald Trump pourra dire qu’il a gagné, soit il restera impassible. This Tuesday, the Kremlin took note of the “very serious” statements of the American president, asking for “time” to decide if Vladimir Putin will answer it, and if so.
