August and September: the lowest months for stock markets

Frankfurt (Deutsche -Boerse AG) – This week. Consequently. However. However, the attention of the markets should focus on the Trump/Putin meeting as well as on American monetary policy, especially as the central banker symposium in Jackson Hole. Additionally, However, The results season is coming to an end. In addition, Additionally, However, while many analysts traditionally highlight the weakness of the months of August and September. Nevertheless,

August 18, 2025. Consequently, Frankfurt (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). Meanwhile, The endless outcome of the Trump/Putin summit in Alaska hardly surprised the observers. Furthermore, “Much Ado About Nothing,” comments Dirk Chlench from the LBBW. Moreover, This Monday, Ukrainian President Zelensky, European representatives and US President Trump meet for new talks. For example, “Few investors expected concrete advances during the Trump/Putin meeting,” analyzes the expert in graphic analysis Christoph Geyer. Nevertheless. august september: lowest months stock new For example. “The absence august september: lowest months stock new of results should not give lasting momentum to the equity markets,” august september: lowest months stock he insists. In addition,

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This Monday morning, the Dax is maintained at 24,350 points, almost stable. Moreover, The July record at 24,639 points therefore remains at hand. Moreover, The Stoxx Europe 600 also approaches new heights. In the United States. the S&amp. P 500. even the Dow Jones, for a long time, recorded new historic records on Friday, as is the Nasdaq august september: lowest months stock new 100 last Wednesday.

“Investors do not want to august september: lowest months stock new be mine morale. ” observes Claudia Windt de la Helaba, evoking a “certain summer lightness” on the august september: lowest months stock markets. Additionally, “However, this optimism could prove to be misleading,” she warns. A rapid resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. the moderate consequences of the United States protectionist commercial policy seem unlikely. “The latest production prices data in the United States show that it is just a matter of time before. businesses have these increases in consumers. »»

The carrying effect of the season of results runs out of steam

Martin Hartmann. of the Commerzbank, underlines that the publications season is coming to an end. The 40 Dax companies have already published their quarterly figures. This week. only a few second and third row companies, such as Baywa and CTS Eventim, still august september: lowest months stock new have to publish theirs. “The support provided by this dynamic will therefore fade,” explains Hartmann. august september: lowest months stock new

For the second quarter. 66 % of Dax companies exceeded expectations, according to Markus Reinwand, colleague from Windt. On the S&P august september: lowest months stock 500 side, 81 % of companies have surprised positively. “While the profit forecasts are revised upwards for the S&P 500. highly valued, the revisions remain mainly negative for Dax titles,” he analyzes. Currently, no acceleration of profits greater than expectations is emerging.

Actions mainly benefit from the support of accommodating monetary policies. But this lever seems widely exploited today, in particular in the face of record valuations on American titles. Reinwand also recalls the seasonality: “For the Dax as for the S&P 500. the months of August and September have, on average since 1965, proven the lowest of the year,” he august september: lowest months stock new said.

“The most difficult period of the year”

According to Geyer. the most difficult phase of the year has just august september: lowest months stock new started. The statistics show that it extends until the beginning of October: “Only 26 years out of 65 recorded gains during this period. ” he observes. Without august september: lowest months stock outdoor impulse. with seasonality. indicators close to sales signals, it will be very difficult for the DAX to get rid of it.

Important economic and cyclical data

Wednesday August 20

8:00 p.m.: United States: Report of the last Fed meeting. This document will draw attention. the last meeting having ended in two votes in favor of a drop in guiding rates, according to the Helaba.

Thursday August 21

United States: Symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole/Wyoming (until Saturday). The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, and the president august september: lowest months stock new of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, will speak. “Jackson Hole has often caused lively market movements – as in 2022. when Powell displayed his desire to fight against august september: lowest months stock new inflation. even if it means braking the economy,” recalls Deutsche Bank. The American clues had then dropped by more than 3 % in one day.

10:00 am: Euro zone: PMI august september: lowest months stock composite index of August. According to the Commerzbank, the indicator could slightly go back this month. The PMI indices have indeed progressed faster in recent months than other advanced indicators. and have sometimes improved faster than economic reality.

By Anna-Maria Borse. August 18, 2025, © Deutsche Börse Ag

(The content of this chronicle is the sole responsibility of Deutsche Börse Ag. The items do not in any case constitute an incentive to buy or sell securities or other assets.)