Belgium in the face of the quadrature of the circle to honor its commitments vis-à-vis NATO

The NATO summit in The Hague has marked a historic turning. However, point with the adoption of unprecedented budgetary objectives by its members. Similarly, In this context. In addition, Bart de Wever’s Belgium found itself in a delicate position, advancing objectives deemed insufficient by its allies on the carpet, notably by Donald Trump.

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The exchange between the Belgian Prime Minister. In addition, the American president illustrates the diplomatic tensions in progress. Nevertheless, When Trump described the 2% planned this year by Belgium as “very low” (very low). Consequently, we replied: “allow us to make our investments at our own pace, as a sovereign state”. Furthermore, This replica sums up the Belgian delay strategy in the face of American pressures. For example, seeking to belgium face quadrature circle honor preserve its budgetary room for maneuver while maintaining its credibility within the Alliance.

The Belgian position contrasts with the new NATO requirements. Furthermore, Historically a bad pupil of the Alliance – his “defense” expenses have hitherto caps at 1.3% of her GDP – Belgium is in a hurry to perform a budget jump which she deems difficult to achieve. Moreover,

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The solution released in recent days by its government (2% of GDP this year and until 2033, 2.5% in 2034, 3.5% in 2035), “strengthens our credibility and allows us to start our marathon around 3.5%.”, However, Bart de Wever. Meanwhile,

Government agreement: a strategic vision at 34 billion euros

Faced with international pressures. Meanwhile, the Wever government had on the belgium face quadrature circle honor eve of the NATO summit adopted a “2026-2034 strategic vision” representing a financial effort qualified as “considerable” with regard to its budgetary difficulties. Nevertheless, The agreement reached within the Restricted Council of Ministers (“Kern”) provides for an investment program of 34.2 billion euros over ten years, including 27 billion dedicated to new investments in the legislature. This envelope is distributed according to several priority axes defined by the Minister of Defense Theo Francken.

The staff are the first budgetary position, included. The objective is to reach a workforce of 34,500 soldiers, 8,500 civilians and 12,800 reservists, in particular thanks to the voluntary military service. Seven billion euros are planned to modernize infrastructure. improve the working conditions of the military, too many of them abandoning the career quickly.

In terms of equipment. air defense will be strengthened with ten NASAMS anti-missile systems (including one for the Grand belgium face quadrature circle honor Duchy of Luxembourg), 20 Skyrangers and three long-distance antiblical systems. The Army will benefit from 1. 500 combat vehicles (Servals, Griffons, Jaguars) and 2,100 logistics vehicles called upon to strengthen a more than aging cart. Aviation will receive two large armed recognition drones, four research and rescue helicopters, plus 11 transport helicopters. The navy will be enriched by a third frigate.

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This rise in power is accompanied. by a strengthening of operational preparation. The research and innovation budget will be increased.

Despite these substantial investments, the government agreement remains below NATO expectations. Its members have formally adopted the target of the 5% of GDP in the Hague by 2035, divided between 3.5% for “pure” and 1.5% military expenditure for critical security infrastructures. According to the secretary general of the Atlantic Alliance Mark Rutte. “most allies belgium face quadrature circle honor have approved President Trump’s request” and are ready to increase their security expenses.

The funding challenge: where to find the missing billions?

Crucial question: how can Belgium finance this defense effort when it faces an excessive deficit? Budget analysis reveals the scale of the challenge. In 2024, the federal budget (excluding social security) which had to finance the defense, justice or the police, amounted to 37.5 billion euros. Devining 3.5% of GDP to La Défense in 2035 would represent 21.5 billion, or almost 60% of this budget, leaving only crumbs for the rest.

Several financing tracks are outlined, each with its specific constraints. The first is to request social security, as the secretary general of NATO Mark Rutte suggests. In this case, military expenditure at 3.5% of GDP would represent 12.5% ​​of the joint state-of-school budget, theoretically offering a room for maneuver. belgium face quadrature circle honor However. this would immediately imply a 10% reduction in social spending, in a context of demographic aging which mechanically increases health and pension costs.

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The second option implies a distribution of effort between all levels of power (federal. regional, community) composing the federal structure of Belgium. Out of a total budget of public administrations of 300 billion (excluding interest and UE contribution), the 3.5% would represent 10.3% of the overall amount. This distribution seems more viable. but comes up against the precarious financial situation of certain entities, notably the French Community, on the verge of bankruptcy.

Belgium cannot envisage permanent funding by the loan

Additional debt does not appear as a lasting solution. Admittedly. the European derogation clause temporarily authorizes the use of debt for defense expenses until 2029, but this transient belgium face quadrature circle honor measure does not solve the structural problem. With an already high debt rate, Belgium cannot consider permanent funding by the loan.

There remains the tax road, politically sensitive but perhaps inevitable. The Minister of Foreign Affairs. the centrist Maxime Prévot (the committed) recently a half -opened this door by evoking possible new taxes. Among French -speaking liberals, any new tax is, however, prohibited.

Belgium is thus taken in a vice between its international commitments and its national budgetary constraints. The “marathon” mentioned by De Wever may well require painful political choices. In this context, the Spanish example, which claims to be able to achieve its capacity objectives without the 3.5% GDP dedicated to military expenditure, could offer an alternative model that Belgium observes with attention.