Switzerland was too pessimistic about the Figures of the AVS

We have long considered the first pillar as the poor parent of Swiss foresight. Moreover, but the situation suddenly seems to have improved significantly.Image: keystone

Analyse

Confederation statisticians have updated their forecasts in terms of demographic and economic development. Furthermore, The consequences for the financing of the AVS are edifying: once the financing of the 13th completed rent. Therefore, the global deficit will disappear in the medium term.

Anna Wanner / ch media

This is a good reason to rejoice: the Confederation presented new scenarios on Wednesday for the financing of AVS. Meanwhile, And they reveal A completely new image: long -term stable AVS financesprovided that Parliament manages to finance the 13th rent.

Despite this delightful announcement, difficult to really believe it. Similarly, A colossal deficit has been predicted to financing AVS for years. Similarly, Last May, the minister of supervision, Elisabeth Baume-Schneider said he was still expecting deficits of several billion each year. For example, Because the population is aging, the baby boomers retired and the beneficiaries of annuities will drop from 2.5 to 3 million by 2035. Therefore, The Jurassian has therefore already presented the main lines of the next substantial AVS reform for 2030.

But in view of the updated calculations, the usefulness of this reform questions. In addition, So what happened?

What has changed for the AVS since 2020 – Switzerland too pessimistic about figures

The Federal Social Insurance Office updated the financial prospects of the AVS until 2040. Similarly, It based on new demographic scenarios and on the conjunctural forecasts of the Confederation. Furthermore, Statisticians expect a higher number of assets and fewer retirees than they envisaged in 2020. This has two positive effects on the life insurance fund: more revenue and less expenses.

However, still according to forecasts, the economic situation slows down and short -term economic growth has been revised downwards. This certainly means less income from work. but also less expenses for AVS, because annuities do not increase as much on the basis of switzerland too pessimistic about figures the mixed index (wages and inflation). The Office also increases the yields of the investment of the compensation fund for the first pillar.

The consequences of this new deal are impressive: deficits of several billion are reducing half. A single major obstacle remains: the financing of the 13th rent.

Four billion in ten years

The increase in annuities will take effect in 2026. The AVS will then go back to the red, with a loss of 1.1 billion. Without additional funding, its deficit will continue to grow. Thus, in 2030, the social institution will pay approximately 1.9 billion more in rents than it will receive in the form of taxes and contributions. In 2035, this figure will reach 4.2 billion.

This lack has been switzerland too pessimistic about figures worried for a long time: Parliament is looking for a means of finance the 13th rent. If he finds a solution, the AVS annuities will be guaranteed in the medium term, according to the latest perspectives.

This is shown by the solution of the Federal Council. If the value added tax is increased by 0.7% from 2027, this will bring about three billion to the AVS fund in 2030. According to financial updates, AVS will display a balanced result thanks to these revenues.

And thanks to additional revenue from higher yields of investments, the operating result will never be negative until 2040. With a positive effect on the AVS fund, which will reach 66 billion in 2040. By way of comparison. according to the old calculation, the operating result would become negative in 2033 already, under the same conditions. And switzerland too pessimistic about figures the fund would fall to 43 billion.

Elisabeth Baume-Schneider predicted, still recently, substantial deficits.Image: keystone

Figures tainted with great uncertainties

The unions are delighted with these new data. which they call “historical scenarios for the AVS”. To the question of whether a large pension reform remains necessary. the Minister of the Interior responds in an evasive manner. It indicates that the Federal Council has not discussed this file. But that it will be necessary to finance the switzerland too pessimistic about figures 13th annuity in all cases.

And no one has yet said their last word. The unions intend to finance additional retirement by wage percentages. The government offers an increase in the value added tax of 0.7 percentage points. Additionally, The Council of States. it favors a mixed calculation which also improves the pensions of married couples, provided that a majority are won. The National Council has not yet made decision.

But we cannot trust these new financial prospects. Better to consider them as a warning signal. As a security measure, the Office presented several scenarios. The surpluses and deficits vary from several billion francs. This text uses the “reference scenario” figures, which extends the trend of recent years.

Adaptation in French by Valentine Zenker

Foreign trade fell all rounded in July, in particular due to a chemistry-pharma sector which weighed the result at the entrance and exit. However, the trade balance completes on an excess of 4.3 billion francs.

Both exports and imports recorded a drop last month. The first decreased by 2.7% to 22.2 billion francs, after earning 8% in June, and seconds switzerland too pessimistic about figures from 4.2% to 17.89 billion in disassessing terms, according to figures published Thursday by the Federal Customs and Border Security Office (OFDF). In real terms, the decline is 2.7% and 0.3% respectively.