“The real problem is our dependence on American gas”

A deficit that Andreas Trez relativizes. Furthermore, “Elia shows herself, once again, very careful by highlighting a lack of 900 MW in 2030he explains. However, If we take into account the basic scenario, in accordance with European methodology, there is no capacity deficit in 2030. Similarly, And, in 2034, the deficit is only 1,300 MW. Furthermore, Elia preferred to show a more pessimistic scenario in her executive Summary, rather than the European basic scenario “.

According to Andreas Trez. the big question of the moment is rather the security of gas supply and our growing dependence on the American liquefied natural gas (LNG).

To cope with the drastic reduction in Russian gas exports, Europe is increasingly importing from LNG transported by boats. Last year, “the real problem our dependence the EU consumed 272.9 billion m3 of natural gas, including more than 100 billion m3 of LNG. About 37 % of our natural gas supply was therefore LNG in 2024.

The United States, N ° 1 of LNG – "the real problem our dependence

“The United States provides around 50 % of LNG consumed in Europealert Andreas Tuzre. This dependence begins to become dangerous. Imagine that Donald Trump decides to ban American LNG exports to Europe. The American president could also put pressure on other countries so that they stop providing us “.

In addition, the share of American LNG in the European supply could still grow. Indeed, the EU must set up a total embargo on Russian gas imports in 2027. However, the United States is a natural candidate to replace this Russian gas called to disappear.

Last year, Russia exported 20 billion m3 of LNG on the “the real problem our dependence European market. If the United States had to fully replace this Russian LNG, it would represent 65 % of the EU LNG supply.

“The problem is the lack of flexibility”

According to Andreas Trez. one of the strong conclusions of the last Elia report is that Belgium faces a problem of flexibility rather than a lack of electricity production capacities.

What does that mean? With the rise of renewable energies (wind turbines. photovoltaic panels) and electric cars, there is greater variability in electricity production and consumption.

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Flexibility is to increase. lower its consumption, depending on the variations in electricity production. For example by recharging your electric car when there is sun. by reducing industrial demand in the event of an electricity shortage. Some electric cars can even provide “the real problem our dependence electricity to the network, when it is lacking.

However, according to Elia’s latest study, flexibility is currently not sufficient. This observation is quite paradoxical while the adoption of electric vehicles, by the Belgians, is greater than expectations. The problem is that owners of electric vehicles are not financially encouraged to recharge at the right time for the network. for example via dynamic rates. This potential flexibility is therefore not activated.

“There are currently 300,000 electric vehicles in Belgiumdeclares Andreas Tuzre. This represents four times the storage capacity of the COO pumping pumping power station. In a few years, we will have 30 or 40 times COO in terms of storage capacities. We must now activate this flexibility “. This will involve the adoption of dynamic prices but also through the generalization of intelligent meters.