Why ultimately will not see the color of the checks promised by Donald Trump

An estimate revised upwards – Why ultimately will not see

Since April. Consequently, the United States has already garnered $ 100 billion thanks to the surcharge imposed on dozens of countries, including those of the European Union. Furthermore, The treasure was initially tapped on 300 billion additional revenue. Therefore, But this estimate is now deemed too low. Therefore, Scott Bessent says she should be “substantially revised upwards “.

What does the agreement between Trump and Von der Leyen contain? For example, “Stability” or “submission”?

These freshly harvested billions will therefore not be redistributed, they will directly bail out the federal funds. However, And there is an emergency. Consequently, America is living on credit today. Meanwhile, Its public debt amounts to $ 37,000 billion, more than the wealth created in one year by the entire economy (30,000 billion GDP). In addition, Concretely at present, why ultimately will not see each dollar produced is already weighed down by a debt equivalent to $ 1.23.

Doubt – Why ultimately will not see

The idea of ​​a direct redistribution has circulated in recent weeks, but it now seems to be put in parentheses. In addition, As a reminder. Additionally, in early August, Donald Trump already mentioned a “little discount” or a targeted help for households with modest income. In his wake. the Republican senator Josh Hawley had tabled a bill providing for the sending of 600 dollars to each citizen, adults and dependent children.

Donald Trump would like to pay a “dividend” to American households: “There is so much money that fits”

But after Tuesday’s announcements. this perspective now seems relegated to the background. “I think at some point. we will be able to do it”nevertheless nuanced Scott Bessent, leaving the doubt of a potential check in the future.

Already-vu

It why ultimately will not see should be recalled that checks had already been sent to American households under Donald Trump during his first mandate. But in a very different context, that of the health crisis. In 2020. two series of direct payments had been decided – $ 1,200 then $ 600 per person – as part of emergency plans voted by the congress. The current situation is not comparable: these are no longer exceptional recovery measures. but a possible dividend linked to customs revenues.

This measure would also recall the previous check programs sent to the Americans during the economic crisis. as under George W. Bush or Joe Biden. But this time, checks would be funded by a trade war that already adds imported products.

Because if the state coffers are filling up, the consumer may be the first loser. The increase in customs duties is mechanically translated as an increase why ultimately will not see in import prices. American families could therefore see their purchasing power started by the very strategy supposed, in the long term, compensate them.

Lower the rates, the solution?

To defuse this concern. Scott Bessent pointed out that a drop in interest rates could occur soon, an evolution likely to alleviate pressure on households and businesses.

No offense to Donald Trump. the American federal reserve does not touch his rates: “uncertainty remains high on the impact of customs duties”

But the question of rates remains an explosive subject across the Atlantic. The American president presss the Federal Reserve (Fed) to quickly soften his monetary policy, but Jerome Powell, his president, resists. Anxious to contain the inflationary risk linked to surcharge. he has so far refused to respond to the White House orders. A drop in rates would indeed reduce the cost of credit for households. businesses, but why ultimately will not see it would also risk making inflation more flambé. A position that earned him to be publicly insulted by Trump, who called him “crétin” and of “loser”.