Moreover,
Shorter dollar: most popular trade:
It is the little pleasure of zonebourse teams: the monthly survey of the managers. Therefore, of Bank of America. Meanwhile, A wealth of information that can sometimes overcome a lack of inspiration. However, This is still the case in the last edition. For example, which tells us that investors have a new favorite trade: Shorter the dollar. In addition,
This is one of the movements on which no one would have bet at the start of the year:. In addition, the drop in the dollar. Additionally, In addition, A 9% withdrawal since the start of the year for the Dollar Index.
Dollar – Shorter dollar: most popular trade
A movement that was not at all anticipated a few months ago. For example, Let us remember that at the end of last year. Therefore, in the wake of the election of Donald Trump, the increase in the dollar was a shorter dollar: most popular trade consensual bet. The strong growth. the impact of customs duties had to bring the Fed to maintain high rates and therefore the dollar to progress.
From now on. Furthermore, the uncertainty generated by customs duties and the slowdown in American growth has produced the opposite result: the dollar has dropped and has known its worst semester since 1991.
The managers have therefore completely changed their vision on the dollar. So much so that the drop in the dollar has become the “most crowded trade”. This is revealed by the latest edition of the Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America. the reference survey of managers.
Source : Bank of America
And buy the euro
On the other hand, investors are much more positive on the euro. According to this same investigation by Bank of America. the shorter dollar: most popular trade overexposition to the Euro has been the strongest since January 2005, and the exposure to European actions has been the highest in five years.
Since the beginning of the year. investors have therefore repositioned themselves in Europe, largely abandoned in recent years. The uncertainty created by Donald Trump on the one hand. the German budget revival and the increase in military budgets in Europe on the other, explain this renewed interest.
But the increase in Eurodollar which follows it begins to worry the ECB. At the beginning of the month, the vice-president, Luis de Guindos, said that the level of 1.20 was a critical threshold for the Frankfurt institution.
After a strong rise in the first half, it is nevertheless interesting to note that the Eurodollar stabilizes. In the markets, it is often when a trade becomes too consensual shorter dollar: most popular trade that it ends up overthrowing.
“Losing a major world war”
To lower the dollar is in principle what the Trump administration wants. which denounces an overvaluation of the dollar which weighs on the competitiveness of American companies.
But as we had already explained. there is a difference between the drop in the dollar and the loss of dollar status.
The United States greatly derives from being the benchmark currency in the world. And they have no intention of giving it up. Last week. during a meeting with members of his office, Donald Trump warned against the efforts of the British countries to weaken the dollar.
A threat comparable to the loss of a “major world war” for the American president. “The dollar is king. We will keep it like that”. adding that if the dollar lost its status “we would no longer be the same country”.
Shorter dollar: most popular shorter dollar: most popular trade trade
Further reading: “Petrol cars do not hold the distance”: this shock study reveals the crushing advantage of electric models over time – Trump unveils investments to power AI with electricity: News – The eco eco editorial of Lucie Robequain. France on the edge of the abyss – “This is the end of an energy era”: the Netherlands stop the extraction of gas in the largest deposit in Europe and arouse concern and hope – Revolut: survey for “dishonest” practices in Italy.
